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Poll

In the situation described in the post, which do you choose?

Rock
Paper
Scissors

Author Topic: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy  (Read 5954 times)

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Offline Zaelar

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Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« on: December 24, 2010, 01:17:46 AM »
Here's the situation.  You're playing against someone in one throw of rock paper scissors for stakes high enough that you care if you win or lose.  You have your opponent scouted, and you know they will throw scissors 70% of the time, rock 15% of the time, and paper 15% of the time.  These percentages are accurate, no deception or misinformation going on.  For this game you decide to go with rock.  Your opponent uses paper and you lose.  The question for the poll is, what should you have used?

Offline LoliSauce

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2010, 03:06:31 AM »
I probably would've chosen rock in that situation.  I'm pretty straightforward.  Scissors is probably the smart pick though.


Here's how I see it:

Rock is the balls deep choice.  It beats out the most common choice but is most easily baited by the opponent (assuming the opponent clearly knows their own choice percentages).  It's sort of an all-or-nothing choice, in that regard.

Scissors is safe choice.  It ties with most common choice, bringing you into the same situation you started in, but also beats out Paper, which is what they would use to counter the obvious Rock play.

Paper is yomi choice.  It loses to their most common choice and ties with their counter-pick.  Seemingly least effective choice unless you are diving deep in the yomi pool.  "They're going to pick Rock to prevent me from taking the safe pick of Scissors, so I should pick Paper to counter!"
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Offline LivingShadow

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2010, 07:20:54 AM »
I'd probably go with scissors for the highest chance of not losing.

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2010, 09:33:06 AM »
I'd go rock. If I lose, it's all that much quicker to punch my opponent for not throwing scissors. Also, if we both throw a rock, then it leads to the obligatory fist pound
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Offline Tonberry

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2010, 11:43:58 AM »
I'd probably go with scissors for the highest chance of not losing.

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2010, 11:57:15 AM »
Have you guys not seen Hunter x Hunter?  You always start with rock.  The reason is because as you watch the opponent's fist drop, you can adjust to scissors or paper on the fly by simply putting out your fingers.
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Offline Rowanism

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2010, 01:09:28 PM »
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Offline Zaelar

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2010, 01:41:08 PM »
In professional rock paper scissors you make your hand puppet behind your back so you can't instant heat rock.

Offline grandlordzero

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2010, 02:09:54 PM »
no risk no reward. paper. specially if he knows that i know that he throws scissors 70% of the time. paper covers both of the other options that he'd likely use to nail my use of rock.

plus, with Rock being such a prevalent choice in America, theirs no way he'd have made it this far in a RPS tourney using 70% scissors. Assuming its a tourney because RPS money matches are so freaking retarded that noone  in their right mind would money match it.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2010, 02:12:36 PM by grandlordzero »
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Offline Cristu

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2010, 09:07:48 PM »
The chance of not losing with scissors is the same that with rock, however the winning chance with rock is bigger.
If you lost, at least you did the right thing choosing rock, with time it shall pay out... You can't go back in time, that's why scissors would be wrong. The correct one will always be the correct for that moment, not for after it imo...
« Last Edit: December 24, 2010, 09:17:46 PM by Cristu »
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Offline Dipstick

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2010, 10:39:33 PM »
The maximal play is to just run rock 100% of the time. The optimal play is to run rock 70% of the time, paper 15% of the time and scissors 15% of the time. The true optimal play is to just run rock, paper, and scissors at 33.33_% frequency; the trick here is actually manage those frequencies as humans are terrible at actually being random (even Zaeler himself).

If you are managing your bankroll properly, you should be able to weather a run of bad luck and run it back with the odds. If you go bust before that happens... you probably deserve to live in a cardboard box.

Running scissors in this instance is for pussies; you're just delaying the loss (or the win) and you're sacrificing a ton of expected value. Your actual win/loss rate by always playing scissors ends up being 50%, not 15%. Ties have to be broken, you idiots.
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Offline Iduno

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2010, 04:44:17 AM »
Rock, picking the answer to your opponent's previous play would just be too obvious imo and it does have the best chance statisticly.
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Offline Nameless_One

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2010, 01:42:06 PM »
Since my opponent used paper, I should have used scissors.

In advance, the percents tells me to choose rock, that will make me win the most in a random clash.
But if I know he would choose paper, I should have countered it with scissors.
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Offline NoNo

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2010, 01:39:51 AM »
Rock. You couldn't know at the time he was gonna use paper, and you had 70% chance of winning, and 15% of draw. One try doesnt make a rule, player using scissors will just win 50% of the time (assuming no draw).

Offline Rei

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2010, 08:56:45 AM »
You could always use the rock option select.

If they do paper, you punch them in the face
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Offline Zaelar

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2010, 09:24:13 AM »
That's not an option select, it's paper confirming.

Offline academico

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2010, 09:39:14 AM »
scissors are the safer option.
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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #18 on: January 02, 2011, 12:31:24 PM »
I'd not even think and leave it to luck, then lose of course.

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #19 on: January 15, 2011, 01:57:14 PM »
Does anyone remember that episode of Pete & Pete where Pete had to fight the bully at Rock Paper Scissors, and he threw paper every single time because people were too scared to throw scissors, but Pete finally threw scissors?

Yeah, that bully beat like 600 people at rock paper scissors before losing to Pete, so you should always throw paper in America.
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Offline Zaelar

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2011, 02:47:58 AM »
The correct answer is rock.  The reason you don't choose scissors is because you didn't know that your opponent was going to use paper.  If you did the situation would be 100% paper 0% rock/scissors.  Saying that you should have thrown scissors is the same as saying to always play the winning lottery numbers.  The result that happens isn't available when you make the decision, thus you can't use that to determine what you should have done.  This relates to fighting games when you're trying to predict what your opponent is going to do.  Saying you simply should have done whatever counters what your opponent did is retarded.  If that's the case you should just say you should throw out a random dp, super, ex, or whatever you have every time your opponent presses a button.  Anyone who knows what a dp, super, or ex is knows that that doesn't work.  When figuring out what you should have done you need to analyze what information you have on what your opponent might do, such as if they reversal on about 80% of wakeups you should be baiting reversals, even if your opponent doesn't do one baiting it is still what you should do.  You predict what your opponent is going to do, run a quick risk/reward formula in your head, and act accordingly.  In doing random dps you probably need to be correct about 90% of the time for it to be worthwhile, although this is just a general guesstimate, the actual value varies greatly depending on the situation, 90% from a start of round neutral state sounds about right.

I didn't expect anyone to say to use scissors to be safe because it simply isn't true.  Rock and scissors both lose 15% of the time, however rock wins more making it better even if not losing is your priority.  I'm guessing it's just trolling but I wanted to include it because I don't rule out that there are people dumb enough to believe it.

What was said about the ideal way to play rps being 1/3 of each is true only if you have no idea what your opponent will do.  If your opponent is either doing something other than 1/3 of each or is in some sort of pattern you should change to exploit the weakness.  Playing 1/3 of each means you win half the time, assuming rethrow on ties.  Similarly, if you're playing a fighting game and your opponent never reversals then doing the ideal of sometimes baiting and sometimes attacking is wrong.  You should be attacking every time against this opponent.

For those interested, the best response to someone who is leaning outside of the ideal medium is doing the counter 100% of the time.  If someone does rock 40%, paper 30%, and scissors 30% you will win the most by playing paper 100%.  Then there are people who will say if you use paper 100% of the time your opponent will stop playing rock.  Any intelligent opponent would however I present two counter arguments.  One, many people are dumb.  Two, if they do switch they aren't playing 40/30/30 anymore and thus your 100% paper counter no longer applies.  You need to realize when your opponent switches.  This is beginning to go past the point I wanted to bring up, but the next step is factoring in how much you should give up(aka purposely lose/not play perfectly/sandbag) to ensure that your opponent keeps playing their 40/30/30.

Offline Nameless_One

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2011, 08:23:03 AM »
You did tell us that our opponent used paper and then asked us what we where supposed to use. The answer to a question like that is scissors.
But if we are going to face the same opponent again. The correct answer is rock.

I really believed it was a trick-question by the way it was written.  :)
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Offline Zaelar

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2011, 02:21:38 AM »
Apparently there's a bug with my last post and someone can only ready the first sentence.  Here, let me quote the whole thing, and hopefully this time everyone can read it all.

The correct answer is rock.  The reason you don't choose scissors is because you didn't know that your opponent was going to use paper.  If you did the situation would be 100% paper 0% rock/scissors.  Saying that you should have thrown scissors is the same as saying to always play the winning lottery numbers.  The result that happens isn't available when you make the decision, thus you can't use that to determine what you should have done.  This relates to fighting games when you're trying to predict what your opponent is going to do.  Saying you simply should have done whatever counters what your opponent did is retarded.  If that's the case you should just say you should throw out a random dp, super, ex, or whatever you have every time your opponent presses a button.  Anyone who knows what a dp, super, or ex is knows that that doesn't work.  When figuring out what you should have done you need to analyze what information you have on what your opponent might do, such as if they reversal on about 80% of wakeups you should be baiting reversals, even if your opponent doesn't do one baiting it is still what you should do.  You predict what your opponent is going to do, run a quick risk/reward formula in your head, and act accordingly.  In doing random dps you probably need to be correct about 90% of the time for it to be worthwhile, although this is just a general guesstimate, the actual value varies greatly depending on the situation, 90% from a start of round neutral state sounds about right.

I didn't expect anyone to say to use scissors to be safe because it simply isn't true.  Rock and scissors both lose 15% of the time, however rock wins more making it better even if not losing is your priority.  I'm guessing it's just trolling but I wanted to include it because I don't rule out that there are people dumb enough to believe it.

What was said about the ideal way to play rps being 1/3 of each is true only if you have no idea what your opponent will do.  If your opponent is either doing something other than 1/3 of each or is in some sort of pattern you should change to exploit the weakness.  Playing 1/3 of each means you win half the time, assuming rethrow on ties.  Similarly, if you're playing a fighting game and your opponent never reversals then doing the ideal of sometimes baiting and sometimes attacking is wrong.  You should be attacking every time against this opponent.

For those interested, the best response to someone who is leaning outside of the ideal medium is doing the counter 100% of the time.  If someone does rock 40%, paper 30%, and scissors 30% you will win the most by playing paper 100%.  Then there are people who will say if you use paper 100% of the time your opponent will stop playing rock.  Any intelligent opponent would however I present two counter arguments.  One, many people are dumb.  Two, if they do switch they aren't playing 40/30/30 anymore and thus your 100% paper counter no longer applies.  You need to realize when your opponent switches.  This is beginning to go past the point I wanted to bring up, but the next step is factoring in how much you should give up(aka purposely lose/not play perfectly/sandbag) to ensure that your opponent keeps playing their 40/30/30.

Offline Nameless_One

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2011, 08:47:53 AM »
Apparently there's a bug with my last post and someone can only ready the first sentence.  Here, let me quote the whole thing, and hopefully this time everyone can read it all.

The correct answer is rock.  The reason you don't choose scissors is because you didn't know that your opponent was going to use paper.  If you did the situation would be 100% paper 0% rock/scissors.  Saying that you should have thrown scissors is the same as saying to always play the winning lottery numbers.  The result that happens isn't available when you make the decision, thus you can't use that to determine what you should have done.  This relates to fighting games when you're trying to predict what your opponent is going to do.  Saying you simply should have done whatever counters what your opponent did is retarded.  If that's the case you should just say you should throw out a random dp, super, ex, or whatever you have every time your opponent presses a button.  Anyone who knows what a dp, super, or ex is knows that that doesn't work.  When figuring out what you should have done you need to analyze what information you have on what your opponent might do, such as if they reversal on about 80% of wakeups you should be baiting reversals, even if your opponent doesn't do one baiting it is still what you should do.  You predict what your opponent is going to do, run a quick risk/reward formula in your head, and act accordingly.  In doing random dps you probably need to be correct about 90% of the time for it to be worthwhile, although this is just a general guesstimate, the actual value varies greatly depending on the situation, 90% from a start of round neutral state sounds about right.

I didn't expect anyone to say to use scissors to be safe because it simply isn't true.  Rock and scissors both lose 15% of the time, however rock wins more making it better even if not losing is your priority.  I'm guessing it's just trolling but I wanted to include it because I don't rule out that there are people dumb enough to believe it.

What was said about the ideal way to play rps being 1/3 of each is true only if you have no idea what your opponent will do.  If your opponent is either doing something other than 1/3 of each or is in some sort of pattern you should change to exploit the weakness.  Playing 1/3 of each means you win half the time, assuming rethrow on ties.  Similarly, if you're playing a fighting game and your opponent never reversals then doing the ideal of sometimes baiting and sometimes attacking is wrong.  You should be attacking every time against this opponent.

For those interested, the best response to someone who is leaning outside of the ideal medium is doing the counter 100% of the time.  If someone does rock 40%, paper 30%, and scissors 30% you will win the most by playing paper 100%.  Then there are people who will say if you use paper 100% of the time your opponent will stop playing rock.  Any intelligent opponent would however I present two counter arguments.  One, many people are dumb.  Two, if they do switch they aren't playing 40/30/30 anymore and thus your 100% paper counter no longer applies.  You need to realize when your opponent switches.  This is beginning to go past the point I wanted to bring up, but the next step is factoring in how much you should give up(aka purposely lose/not play perfectly/sandbag) to ensure that your opponent keeps playing their 40/30/30.
It doesn't change the fact you wrote it like a trick question.
Asking a question with an obvious answer. Use the obvious answer. Add more information and finally ask what you should have used.
I'm sorry if you do not like that I think the question could have been written better, but you could have made it clear after I wrote my answer.
Anyway, there is no reason to be rude.  :)
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Offline Zaelar

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Re: Rock Paper Scissors situation/strategy
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2011, 10:33:07 AM »
The question asks what you should do before you know paper is coming.